In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we look at some major elections and political transitions that have recently taken place, discussing the fallout from Brazil’s presidential election, assessing the implications of the UK’s leadership changes, and parsing the US midterm results in terms of political stability and growing partisan division.
Calm before the storm? Prospects for post-election unrest in Brazil
While Jair Bolsonaro’s tacit acceptance of defeat in October’s presidential runoff result calmed concerns over extended post-election unrest, political divisions remain entrenched in the country. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will need to carefully navigate the transition in the knowledge that Bolsonaro retains significant political support, and may seek to undermine the new administration as it sets out to enact its legislative agenda.
Another day, another leader: Can Rishi Sunak return credibility to the United Kingdom?
The failure of Liz Truss to establish herself at Number 10 Downing Street, following a major economic policy blunder, led to a third prime minister being installed in the UK within the space of six weeks. Given prevailing Conservative party disunity, and the backdrop of a troubled socio-economic environment in the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces a challenging task in seeking stability for the country.
Morning in America: A return to normalcy post-US midterm elections
The Republican party’s “red wave” into Congress failed to materialise in the November midterm elections, with the Democratic party retaining control of the Senate and the Republicans gaining only a slim majority in the House of Representatives. Divisive issues remain at the heart of US politics, but these elections suggested a return to ordered transitions of political power following a tumultuous 2020 presidential election.