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Global Risk Bulletin | Vol 6 2022

Markus Korhonen 14 July 2022
14 July 2022    Markus Korhonen

Global Risk Bulletin | Vol 6 2022

In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we discuss the contentious maritime security environment in the South China Sea, look at how Turkey’s economic policies are leading to growing popular discontent, and assess the prospects for Colombia’s new president to follow through on the campaign promises that brought him to power.

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In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we discuss the contentious maritime security environment in the South China Sea, look at how Turkey’s economic policies are leading to growing popular discontent, and assess the prospects for Colombia’s new president to follow through on the campaign promises that brought him to power.

 

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Rising tensions: The South China Sea’s maritime security environment is under threat

Competing claims to the lucrative fishing and natural resource rights in the South China Sea, coupled with growing geopolitical tensions and military posturing, are driving a deterioration of the maritime security environment. While military conflict remains unlikely, any significant disruptions to transit in the region will have significant impacts on global trade.

 

 

 

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The economics of unrest: Turkey’s risky economic policies and the potential for popular protests

Soaring inflation and currency depreciation in Turkey, driven in part by unorthodox economic policies, will increase popular dissatisfaction in the coming months. While the authorities have in the past been quick to clamp down on protests, parliamentary and presidential elections in June 2023 will provide a likely platform for mass action aimed at the current government and its inability to stabilise the downward spiralling economy.

 

 

 

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Petro’s promises: Can new President Gustavo Petro enact the change he has campaigned for?

Colombia’s first elected leftist President Gustavo Petro may struggle to fulfil his mandate, amid a hostile congress and a lagging economy. In recent years, other leftists leaders in Latin America have struggled to enact popular change, and in turn have seen the populace turn against them. Unless Petro can buck the trend, he may also face the prospect of a disappointed electorate and growing civil unrest.

 

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S-RM is a global risk consultancy providing intelligence, resilience and response solutions to clients worldwide. To discuss this article or other industry developments, please reach out to one of our experts.

Markus Korhonen
Markus korhonen Senior Associate, Strategic Intelligence Email Markus

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