In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we look at how the war in Ukraine is driving civil unrest across Europe, we examine the prospects of the Ukraine war widening to Moldova, and explore the range of events behind Sri Lanka’s current economic and political crisis.
Europe’s balancing act: Tensions flare as Ukraine conflict stokes domestic unrest
The war in Ukraine has prompted protests and increased tensions in several European countries. There have already been numerous incidents of harassment and vandalism, motivated either in support of or in opposition to the war. While pro-Russian sentiment is greatly overshadowed by support for Ukraine, European governments will seek to balance their responses to the conflict to avoid an escalation of unrest between rival groups.
Tensions in Transnistria: Consequences for Ukraine and Moldova
Since April, there have been a series of bombings across Transnistria, the de facto independent republic universally recognised as part of Moldova. Russia has in the past engaged in destabilising actions in efforts to slow Moldova’s integration with western Europe, though its attentions are likely to be focused on the conflict in Ukraine for the time being. Still, Moldova will be wary of Russian’s intentions for the country.
Sri Lanka’s economic crisis: When bad luck meets bad management
Independent drivers such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have had a detrimental impact on Sri Lanka’s economy, but the current turbulence in the country is also in part firmly rooted in domestic decision-making. Poor policy choices have driven Sri Lanka into an unprecedented political and economic crisis with few clear ways out.