In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we look at how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted European countries to reconsider their military capabilities and potentially driven Finland and Sweden to seek NATO membership, look at why Kazakhstan has been hesitant to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine despite close ties between the countries, and discuss President Pedro Castillo’s prospects in navigating Peru’s tumultuous political and economic climate during his term.
Unintended consequences: Is Russia’s aggression driving Nordic NATO expansion?
Several European countries are reviewing their defence options in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For Finland and Sweden, two Nordic countries whose foreign policies have been long informed by a firm neutral stance in military affairs, it is increasingly looking like NATO membership may be the most logical step in preventing future Russian aggression from being directed at them.
Between the West and Russia: The Ukraine war and Kazakhstan’s tough balancing act
Kazakhstan has been a surprisingly hesitant friend to Russia since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has chosen to not support the war, while at the same time trying to avoid alienating either Russia or the West. It is a fine balancing act, and one which Kazakhstan’s leadership will seek to maintain amid domestic political challenges and the potential for an increasingly isolated Russia looking for allies.
Instability and unrest in Peru: Business as usual?
Political and social instability have plagued Peru since 2017, and sitting President Pedro Castillo has to date been unable to significantly alter the status quo. Nonetheless, Peru’s investor climate has remained largely stable, and there are unlikely to be significant legislative manoeuvres while Castillo struggles to firm his political support.