In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we take a close look at the knock-on effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, assessing the economic and political ramifications, looking at shifts in the global political order, and reflecting on the potential for growing civil unrest in the wake of a European refugee crisis and worsening socio-economic conditions caused by the conflict.
Ripple effects: Global dependencies in the Russo-Ukrainian war
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been slowed by poor planning and a dogged defence by the Ukrainian armed forces. Regardless, the invasion has had a range of far-reaching consequences globally, impacting energy markets and shipping, disrupting grain supplies, and presenting further obstacles for already stretched supply chains.
Spillover: The global ramifications of the war in Ukraine
Russia’s behaviour for at least the past 15 years, both at home and abroad, has demonstrated a clear rejection of the liberal international order. While the market implications of the war are perhaps more immediate, it will also have a range of political consequences globally. We discuss how these developments will play out in Africa, the Middle East, the Americas and the Asia-Pacific regions.
The Ukrainian crisis: A recipe for civil unrest in Europe
Already before Russia’s invasion rising inflation was prompting growing unrest in Europe. With several economic challenges now amplified, and an influx of some 4 million refugees mainly to Ukraine’s neighbouring countries, the conditions are ripe for wide-reaching discontent and protest.