In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we look at the impacts of continuing rolling power outages in South Africa, assess the likely trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war, and discuss the implications of extended civil unrest in Peru on global copper markets.
Power to the people: Why rolling power outages will drive protests in South Africa in the coming year
Daily power outages across South Africa are taking their toll on the country’s economy, but increasing dissatisfaction with slow progress on systemic improvements to ensure a steady electricity supply has already prompted a number of protests. With no clear solution in sight to resolve the multitude of problems at Eskom, South Africa’s state-owned electricity producer, expanded protest action is likely.
The spring offensive: A pivotal point in the conflict in Ukraine
A year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, few signs point to a resolution to the hostilities. Western states, and the US in particular, are continuing to provide support to the Ukrainian military, and Ukraine is hoping recent commitments from a number of allies to supply it with battle tanks will prove pivotal in swaying the fight in its favour, despite Russia showing no indications of backing down.
To the streets: Peruvian unrest threatens global copper markets
Protests related to the arrest of former President Pedro Castillo have been ongoing in Peru since December 2022. A fragile political system and deep-seated societal divisions suggest popular dissatisfaction will be difficult to placate, and the ensuing instability is prompting significant uncertainty for not only the mining sector in Peru, but also for global copper production and prices.