Global Risk Bulletin | November 2019

In this edition of the Global Risk Bulletin, we explore the fragility of Spanish unity following a new wave of civil unrest in Catalonia, analyse the prospects for a sustained insurrection in Chile, and consider what Lebanon’s largest anti-government protest campaign since 2015 means for the country.

Included in this month's bulletin:

CATALAN CRISIS: A PERFECT STORM FOR THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS 

In Barcelona, a series of violent protests has led to government instability ahead of November’s general election. With demonstrators calling for Catalonia’s independence from Spain, tensions have given rise to long-dormant nationalism and prompted the emergence of Vox – a far-right political party. In this article, we assess the commercial and security impacts of Spain’s continued civil unrest.

LEBANON’S ‘WHATSAPP REVOLUTION’: NO NEW TAXES 

Demonstrations against the introduction of taxes on phone calls made from popular messaging applications like WhatsApp have prompted the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri. While this move responds to a demand made by anti-government protesters, it has plunged the country into even greater uncertainty. In this article, we analyse the drivers and implications of Lebanon’s growing economic and political crisis.

THE MATCH IN THE POWDER BARREL: CHILE’S UNEXPECTED OUTRAGE 

An increase in metro fares has triggered widespread anger over perceived socio-economic inequalities in Chile. With President Sebastián Piñera claiming that “we [the country] are at war” in late October, the nation has seen a further surge in the number of clashes between security forces and demonstrators. In this article, we explore the fragmented nature of Chile’s anti-government protests.