Global Risk Bulletin | March 2019

In our latest Global Risk Bulletin, we discuss the fallout from a Thai princess' bid to become prime minister and assess the implications for peace and security of the January cathedral bombings in the southern Philippines. We also explore the security challenges awaiting recently re-elected Nigerian president, Muhammadu Buhari, as he embarks on his second term in office.

INCLUDED IN THIS MONTH’S BULLETIN:

THE PRINCESS’ GAMBLE: THAI POLITICS AHEAD OF THE MARCH 2019 ELECTION 

In February 2019, Thailand’s Princess Ubolratana shocked many with her nomination as a prime ministerial candidate for the 24 March elections. In this article we assess Thailand’s political environment in the run-up to election day and discuss the prospect for further instability.

BOMBS AND THE BOL: THE 2019 JOLO CATHEDRAL BOMBINGS 

In January 2019, suspected Islamic State-affiliated militants killed at least 27 people in a bombing at a cathedral in Jolo, in the southern Philippines. Subsequently, a grenade attack on a mosque in Zamboanga left two dead. These violent incidents occurred in the wake of the signing of the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL), which grants greater autonomy to Muslim majority areas in Mindanao. In this article, we discuss the implications of this latest attack on peace-building efforts in the country.

WILL THE CENTRE HOLD: KEY SECURITY CHALLENGES IN BUHARI’S SECOND TERM 

On 23 February, Nigeria went to the polls to select a new president and National Assembly. The vote saw incumbent Muhammadu Buhari secure a second term in office. In this article, we examine the range of socio-political and security concerns the president will have to address as he embarks on his second tenure.